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Saturday, September 19, 2009

Week-end update!!!

The McClellan Oscillator, is starting to show a little weakness declining from its recent high of 69.52 from the early part of the week, and crossing below 50. Still a ways to go till the "zero" line, but another thing to keep an eye on, showing a slight negative divergence on Friday

The Advancing issues ended the week positive at 1.4:1, over Decliners, ending Bullish, after a quick push into, and out of into negative territory. The one thing on this chart I am keeping an eye on is the 4MA (green dotted line), trending downwards!!

So far this count that I have been working on for quite a while, is still holding up and agreeing with the TA, not saying that it will be the final count in the end, but so far the count still has legs. It is the least bullish count that I have floating around in my head and in my charts (both public and private), and the most Bearish one, time-wise. With the SPX in its final wave 4, consolidating in a triangle, a-b-c-d-e, right now, and most likely through Monday and even possibly into Tuesday after which I expect one more push up to finish the 5th wave and complete the final structure. One thing I will be watching for, and would help to confirm this count, would be the developing of an ending Diagonal for the 5th and final wave as they are only found at the termination points of larger patterns. An Ending Diagonal would start to show itself if we start getting a-b-c counts instead of five wave impulse counts heading higher, and wave 1 would most likely be the largest of the waves in this pattern.

I included a shorter time frame chart here to show the count I have supporting the larger term count above. I also have another count going that is much more bullish in my public charts on Stock Charts, and relates to a move that would take us up towards 1120 as a final peak for P2. Both the counts are valid right now, and the next rally up should help to dictate which is the right count for the longer term. I will be watching all the charts I have included here, and have in Stock Charts, A/D, MO, SI, MACD, and looking for negative divergences to develop with in them, coupled together with any signs that volume is waning and starting to decline, and the stucture of the next wave, or rally up for signs of an Ending Diagonal to help with determining which count is most likely, and how far away the top might be.

So for next week, Monday, Tuesday, back and forth action while we finish consolidating, then up for 3-4 days (completing the 5th wave) after which I will be able to have a better reading on the TA, and EW., but I believe that it is 50/50, that could be a top!!.

While Elliott wave does not give a perfect prediction of where the market is going, it does provide clues, and can be used as a road-map, when combined with other forms of TA, it can eliminate possible scenarios when used correctly, and is a great tool for determining entry and exit points.

What does this mean for me?

I will watch closely at the coming rally to determine the structure of the impulse wave, if it starts to look like an Ending Diagonal, and the TA, confirms this, I will exit all of my longs, and start a SMALL short position.

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  1. Hey Col, nice counts man! My preferred count is very similar: I like it when we think alike :). Take care bro, and have a good weekend!

  2. Morning Binve, hope you get a chance to see the rest of the post, you caught me in the middle of adding charts. Amazing, this is the count and structure that we both came up with together a couple of months ago, and still has legs, and it is starting to agree with some of the TA. Hope you are enjoying your week-end :)
    (two minds are better then one)

  3. I haven't seen this Col.. Love your new venture on the Adv/Dec, and the big MO.. I've been working with both of those things but don't have a solid base to add them yet.. Fantastic job man!!