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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

After the bell update

The Bollinger bands really tightened up today, possible we will see a large move coming soon.

That was an uneventful day, a day of consolidating in a very boring corrective wave. Possible that we finished wave b of B of 4. I am not 100% convinced (maybe 10%), that wave 4 is finished, it was too short in time, and not very complex, (if wave 2's are simple, wave 4's should be complex). Wave 4's should also be the time of consolidation and burning off overbought conditions, a process that takes time. I outlined three possible scenarios I see possible in the chart above,
1st., wave 4 is completed and we are in wave 2 of 5 up
2nd., an a-b-c contracting triangle
3rd., a more standard and typical wave 4 pattern, complex a-b-c-d-e, to finish up the 4th. wave.
It is also possible that we have had our top already in place and we currently are in the 2nd. wave of a sell-off (not likely). I am still in cash from last week, and will stay so until I see an edge, or signs of a trend in place.

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